Imagine a world that was frozen in time, that was held back by backwards policies in government, education, commerce, foreign relations, culture that is now rapidly being assimilated with the rest of the world. It is the TRUE emergence of a people into the world economy and, as one can imagine, a sight I must see for myself.
A little background - Myanmar and particularly the military regime that is in power generally has had tremendous support from the Chinese and, because of this, never felt the need to move towards Western standards. This left the country in shambles and the Chinese in a position of incredible power over a lot of resources. Enter the West, the United States as the main actor. Bringing money and resources, the US welcomed the advances from the Burmese government and has effectively used incentives to move the country towards the rapid modernization that it has desperately needed for many decades.
This modernization has brought a floating currency (somewhat), the release of key political prisoners, and an influx of foreign investment, travelers, flights (naturally) and general economic growth. It now is a rarity to go a day without seeing news of progress originating from Myanmar. With this positive trendline in reform has come the lifting of sanctions by the US and EU (both economic and diplomatic) and a massive general interest from the world. Energy giants, amongst many other interested players, have rushed to the country due to its massive deposits of natural gas and other energy sources. Beyond energy, count gems, fertile land and tourism as the next biggest areas of growth. Indeed, one could say EVERYTHING is a growth industry because the country is so far behind in investment.
Name it: infrastructure, housing, basic services, material goods, durable goods (machinery, cars), etc etc. All of these are so far behind. With rapid growth, a population of 60m (estimated - will find out more in 2014 census), incredible tourist sites that are drawing record numbers and a very strategic location (between China and India, great access to sea lanes), most feel that Myanmar's growth is here to stay; that is, as long as the regime doesn't change its mind and fight its way back to power.
This is the central struggle: does a country that NEEDS to grow with investors and the world ready to hand it everything it needs to achieve that growth actually follow the path of goodness or does it regress as it has previously and burn everyone involved? No one really knows. Analysts place the risk of a return of the military junta at around 15%, but again, no one really knows. One can only look to the recent examples of Vietnam and Mongolia to better predict the likely outcomes.
This brings me to risk: yes, there is a lot of risk here, I don't know a lot about what is going on behind the scenes, nor do my partners, but we are heading there with a head full of steam, hands full of tangential research and a mind of getting deep into everything we possibly can over a one month period (this taking into account the overlapping of time between my partners and I). The trip will be a success no matter if we make an investment or not. All of us will walk away much better informed, experienced and more alive for it.
Updates will come rapidly as well as photos from the sights in Yangon, Naypyidaw and possibly Bagan. This is a business trip, but business is just another expression of life and curiosity. As they say, life is a journey, not a destination. Very very excited here about both the journey and the destination.
T-minus 21 days until departure on the trip of a lifetime.
2 comments:
I once asked a local Burmese guy what he thought about his new democratic government. He said they didnt have one. The military just took off their uniforms and put on suits.
Yeah, it was such a smooth transition. True democracy was never born. Just suitcases full of money from the West to keep Chinese influence under wraps. The Burmese also feared Chinese creep in their culture. This is the worrisome part.
There are still riots, misgivings by the government. It is an interesting experiment when compared to the North African revolutions. Let's see what happens.
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